ArmadilloCon 2011: Imagining a future without fossil fuels

Defining the peak oil is not simple

As we may have already reached peak oil, the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, it is timely to have a panel like "Imagining a future without fossil fuels". But before we can ask science fiction writers what will happen once oil production enters inevitable decline, we have to take into account that the definition of peak oil in itself, err, slippery. The question of whether there is a peak oil should be, "peak oil at what price", says Paolo Bacigalupi, whose novel "The Windup Girl" is set in post-fossil-fuel future. At $90/barrel, it becomes profitable to convert shale into oil. So when cheap oil becomes unavailable, people start extracting oil from reserves that were harder to reach. Since petroleum is used for much more than fuel, but also for plastic, fertilizers, and many other things, at some point oil will become too valuable to burn as fuel. We'll have to prioritize what we'll use fossil fuels for -- driving versus plastics, food, or fertilizers.

Matt Cardin, Paolo Bacigalupi, Jayme Lynn Blaschke, and David Chang. More pictures from ArmadilloCon 2011 are in my photo gallery.

With the tendrils of fossil fuels going into so many things, we should not imagine that a world with a different energy mix will look just like this one, says Matt Cardin. Our supply chains won't look the same. For example, industrial farming will change, because Dow Chemical produceds a lot of fertilizers from petrochemicals, and it will be too expensive to do that.

The question is, does the future have to go apocalyptic?

Will it look like the Little House of the Prairie?

The panelists sure hope the technological society won't go away completely, and we won't have to return to a lifestyle of 19th century farmers. Katy Stauber's mixed visions of the future do include farmhouses, albeit still connected to the internet. That way we could still play World of Warcraft while riding our bikes to power our computers. It seems she doesn't mind returning to pre-technological civilization, as long as enough technology is preserved for us to have some fun.

David Chang, Katy Stauber, and Matthew Bey. More pictures from ArmadilloCon 2011 are in my photo gallery.

David Chang and Paolo Bacigalupi hope that the tools and technology we have these days will make it possible for ordinary people to innovate solutions for post-fossil-fuel future. Bacigalupi has faith in people like a guy down the street from him, who is working on a biogas composter in his garage.

We could save lots of energy just by wasting it less, the audience points out. House builders used to (or still do) put the air conditioning unit in the attic, where it gets 150 degrees in summer. With energy costs rising, they might soon become smarter about that.

What is the next promising power source?

It is solar? Though it's commonly viewed as being cost-ineffective compared to coal, solar power costs about the same as coal, says Jayme Lynn Blaschke. The reason for discrepancy is that when those comparisons are made, commercial solar panels are lumped in with retail, and that drives their cost up. But there isn't such a thing as "retail" coal power.

Is it wind? Jayme was driving on Texas coast and saw four times as many wind turbines as last year. Matthew Bey said he knows a wind power entrepreneur -- a wind wildcatter, as it were -- who invests in this form of energy, and he's not doing it to make the planet green. This investor had a Whataburger franchise before he decided to make money off wind power. So anecdotal evidence shows that the good old free market is starting to see alternative energy as viable.

What are the promising modes of post-fossil-fuel transportation?

Could it be Shweeb, which David Chang describes as a human powered transportation system resembling a bicycle on tracks. You can go long distances on it, because there is little friction.

Could it be buses on stilts, or straddling buses, the kind that have been developed in China? (Here's a New York Times article on that.) While the buses don't do away with fossil-fuel (they are only partially solar-powered), their capacity to carry 40 times as many people as a regular bus should present significant energy savings.

Ecovillages

A few weeks ago I went to a meeting of the Ethical Society of Austin. This was part of my search for a secular community. While I've been involved with a few of those, and frequently mention them in my blog, it doesn't mean I have found my "community-home". But that's not what this post is about. The folks at the Ethical Society were warm and welcoming. The presentation of the guest speaker, Kate Lovelady, was titled "A Sustainable Community -- Eco-Village Life and Ethical Culture". She spoke about the Dancing Rabbit Ecovillage, which she visited not long ago. I've heard about ecovillages, cohousing, and intentional communities before, but not in much detail. There is a range of communities that are variations on cohousing theme. Some of them are in big cities, and truly green living is not any more possible to them than it is to most of us, so they don't even set it as a goal. And then there are communities like Dancing Rabbit Ecovillage, located in remote corners of the world, and their members take radical (by our standards) measures to live sustainably.

What do people in ecovillages live on?

When you imagine a community located far from a city, and you learn they share 3 cars among 50 people (a deliberately chosen restriction), you realize those people aren't just living out in the country and commuting to city jobs. That would be the opposite of sustainable. So you've got to ask yourself, what do they live on? The speaker, Kate, addressed that question, and the answer was not very inspiring. Most live on a patchwork of precarious sources of income. Such a lifestyle is easier in an ecovillage than in the mainstream world. The folks here don't need very much, and they get most of what they need from the inside economy. They grow their own food and do jobs for one another (such as building houses). Many do random jobs here and there. Some live off retirement funds. They have been entertaining an idea of opening a bed-and-breakfast. Not everyone agrees, though, because some people feel it would restrict them from gardening in the nude. But an increasing number of members have home-based, or web-based, businesses.

And yes, they have internet access.

Freedom from some of society's regulations is what prompted them to choose this unlikely location in Missouri, instead of someplace in California, as one might expect. This place does not have building codes for private residences, so they could build any kind of houses they wanted. One woman turned an old bus into a house. She insulated it and made it otherwise livable. However, at the time of Kate's visit, she had a big mouse problem.

To be a successful hippie, you have to have a lot of structure

This, however, does not mean everyone is free to live any way they want without any restrictions or regulations. Quite the contrary. Policies and procedures govern their everyday life. Kate quoted one resident saying: "When I joined the Dancing Rabbit, I thought I was going to have to throw my watch away. Instead I got a day planner!" They have lots of meetings to discuss issues that come up. "To be successfully hippy-dippy, you have to have a lot of structure," says Kate. They have co-ops for everything. I guess those are formal structures for exchange of goods and services. There's even an co-op for internet access, and, of course, car co-op. Sharing 3 cars among 50 or so members means lots of carpooling, thus, lots of coordinating.

Some of the biggest sore points among members are dogs and children. Those are two kinds of creatures that don't necessarily obey rules, and it does not help that many ecovillagers are opposed to population growth. So there are constant boundary negotiations going on, some people's freedoms pushing against other people's rights.

What do they do for healthcare?

Since they are outside of the corporate world and don't have health insurance, what do they do for healthcare? Most people, unfortunately, go without. Some visit local rural clinics, staffed by nurses. Some are negotiating with health insurance companies to create special plans for intentional communities, though they don't seem to have made a lot of headway. Some justify their opting out of healthcare with an argument "if something happened to me, I'd rather die at home than be hooked up to life support machines in a hospital for weeks". That's an understandable sentiment, but, as Kate Lovelady pointed out, there are many shades of gray between good health and life support machines, and many times a doctor is invaluable.

Living one's values to the maximum

What specific ways of sustainable living have they adopted? They heat houses using waste woods from local small factories, and solar arrays. This does not mean entire houses are covered with them. Solar arrays, Kate says, don't have to be big to power VCRs, refrigerators and power tools. The bathrooms in the ecovillage -- one of the more "exotic" manifestations of sustainable living -- use "humanure" system. That's pretty much what it sounds like. The villagers use human waste for compost. Instead of flushing the toilet, you cover up waste with sawdust. Kate said she was more than a bit uneasy about using them at first, but in reality there's nothing gross or weird about them. The bathrooms mostly just smell like sawdust.

Similarly, the folks who live in ecovillages are not weird. They are mostly just ordinary people; what's different about them, Kate thinks, is dedication they put into living their values. Kate herself practices environmentalism -- she's a vegan, rides a scooter, and wears second-hand clothes. She's considered an extremist even in the Ethical Society. But in the Dancing Rabbit she was perceived as a bourgeois!

As one may expect, living your values to the maximum comes at a cost. Apart from lack of healthcare, there are more personal costs as well. In private conversations with Kate some people expressed their apprehensions regarding loneliness. Someone being one of only three singles in the community, if they don't hit it off with one of the other two people, they'll probably move on in half a year.